The latest official estimates indicate that the UK recession ended in the 4th quarter of 2009. Official preliminary estimates indicate that economic output (GVA) increased by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The latest UK economic output performance figures reinforce the view that recovery will be slow. HM Treasury’s average of independent forecasters suggest 1.4 per cent economic growth in the UK in 2010.

The recovery remains fragile. Business confidence has improved, but this has been slow in translating into increased orders and workloads. Cost increases are also pressurising margins, as businesses cannot increase prices in the current market environment.

Unemployment has fallen in the region. The East of England’s unemployment rate is 6.3 per cent for the three month period between September and November 2009, which is reduced from the previous rate of 6.6 per cent. Although redundancies have stabilised at a lower level than earlier in 2009, job losses continue to be announced, particularly in the region’s manufacturing sector.

Business confidence is increasing, with a clear majority of businesses believing recovery is underway. There are indications that business orders are beginning to recover.

House prices continued to rise in November 2009, by 1.7 per cent compared to 12 months previously. However, the latest RICS Housing Market Survey reported a fall in buyer enquiries for the third successive month in November.

Contact Glenn Athey Insighteast@eeda.org.uk